Volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$244K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Source
NBER declaration / BEA GDP releases
About this market
Resolves YES if the NBER declares that a U.S. recession began during calendar year 2026, or if two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth are recorded within 2026.
Recent trades
Resolution
Source
NBER declaration / BEA GDP releases
Rules
Resolves YES if (a) the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announces a recession start date within 2026, or (b) BEA advance estimates show negative real GDP growth for two consecutive quarters fully inside 2026. Either condition may resolve the market after year-end once data is available.
Winning shares settle at $1.00 · losing shares settle at $0.00 · disputes reviewed by the FutureCast oracle council within 48h of resolution.
Discussion
3I'm market-making both sides of this one. Spread has tightened a lot since Monday — good sign for liquidity.
Resolution source is clean and unambiguous. That alone makes this tradeable for size.
Compare this to the related markets in the category — there's a consistency arb if you squint.
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Fees $0.00 · demo
Winning shares settle at $1 · losing shares settle at $0